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Is an economic downturn on the way? Sixty-nine percent of middle market companies are expecting an economic downturn in the United States in the next two years. More expect it to come later as opposed to sooner, with 31 percent expecting a downturn in 2019 and 38 percent expecting it in 2020.
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· Inflation, 10-year Yield and Mortgage Rates. The only times that rates broke out of this range was during short-term economic events, such as the 2012 european bond market scare and the 2016 Brexit, when the 10-year broke under 1.60% and during the tail-end of the taper sell off in bonds when yields broke over 2.62%.